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Maharashtra: Mahayuti future is tense; will it break soon?

By Mahesh Vijapurkar

The rift in the Mahayuti, the three-party alliance of BJP, Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and the Ajit Pawar’s NCP is seen as widening. It is reckoned that Ajit Pawar is seen as the least powerful amongst the three-party alliance and he knows it.

It is no secret that Ajit Pawar senses that when seat-sharing exercise is carried out for the Assembly elections that are likely in November, he may be, by his party’s reckoning, dealt a raw deal.

This may happen despite the fact that BJP has cut down its expectations of winning 140 seats to only 100 out of the 288 seats up for grab. It wants the allies to transfer their votes to the party from where it is contesting. Ajit Pawar’s party did not transfer its votes substantially in the Lok Sabha elections.

There was a strong reaction from the NCP (Ajit Pawar) whose spokesperson, Umesh Patil would like a Shinde-led Sena’s minister, Tanaji Sawant to be either sacked forthwith or the Ajit Pawar-led ministers stay away from all cabinet meetings.

Ajit Pawar himself stirred the pot by apologising on his and government’s behalf for the collapse of the Shivaji statue when both the Chief Minister Shinde and another Deputy CM, Devendra Fadnavis were shifting the focus on the navy. They had to fall in line. Ajit scored here.

That is what Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party’s spokesperson would like it to do and push it close to teetering on the edge of a break-up. The spokesperson, Umesh Patil, in fact, has said it “should” because the minister’s one comment was outlandish. This could also be pre-poll muscle flexing.

The grievance is a comment from the health minister, Tananji Sawant, from the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena who has reportedly said that though he sat next to Congress or NCP (AP) ministers in cabinet meetings, “he felt like vomiting on coming out.” He named Ajit Pawar.

Imagine a political party which is in alliance with two others to run a government, as in Maharashtra, decides to bench itself in all cabinet meetings. It would be an unusual, unparalleled, political crisis. It amounts to breaking up a government.

Sawant was speaking at a public event in Dharashiv, erstwhile Osmanabad in Marathwada, and it set the cat among the pigeons. Sawant had said that he was extremely uncomfortable with both Congress and the NCP. Sitting with them in the cabinet was painful.

The speak-out by Umesh Patil is being couched both as “suggestion” and “threat” but it does point to growing differences between Ajit Pawar-led NCP and the other two partners. Though Ajit Pawar broke Sharad Pawar’s party, is seen as a yoke around the three-party alliance, by BJP.

BJP’s view has been that the Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction benefitted by the alliance which contested the Lok Sabha polls but his party failed to transfer its vote to the other two alliance partners. But for that, the BJP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena would have taken at least a couple of seats more.

Ajit Pawar is credited with being conscious that his party may not get its due (according to its calculation) when they go to the polls to the Assembly in November. He may be dealt with a smaller share of seats for contest which would in turn hit his party’s enthusiasm to remain in reckoning.

The statement of the spokesman is strong, underscoring his extraordinary dislike for the two parties which are his partner’s alliance. Unable to bear that, the NCP (AP) spokesperson has said, “We will not accept Sawant’s apology or statement that he was misinterpreted.”

Umesh Patil has suggested an alternative to allow the government to survive. “Get Sawant out of the coalition ministry.” Though, of course, a partner asking another who it should have in the government is not the way coalitions are run.

In coalitions, political parties get their share of the spoils by way of number of seats in the cabinet. The portfolios are negotiated and generally stay with the party which gets them. Parties nominate their respective candidates to hold the portfolios.

For instance, it is Chandrababu Naidu’s call as to who should represent his party in the coalition cabinet. The portfolios are pre-decided and if changed during the tenure, it is only with consent. The Prime Minister does not take away or give a new portfolio.

I recall how, when Chhagan Bhujbal was asked to quit his post of Deputy Chief Minister by Sharad Pawar following the former’s cadre stoning a TV studio, the Chief Minister waited for a nominee to be sent by the NCP. NCP and the Congress were partners after defeating the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance in 1999.

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